Here’s The Deal: Predicting The Weather Months From Now Is Worthless

We’re at that part of the year where the weather is truly shifting to a colder vibe. It’s been nice having these extra weeks of warmer weather up here in northeast PA and I’m a man who tries and keeps Summer going for as long as I can. But in the Royal Rumble of changing seasons, eventually everyone gets thrown over the top rope and the winner is always the tilt in Earth’s axis. Hey fine with me. I enjoy all my seasons.

But what I can’t stand is all the folks that try and play arm chair meteorologist and tell me how the weather is going to be in regards to amount of snow we’re going to get 3-4 months from now. Whether(nice pun right there) they’re saying we’re getting a ton of snow or if they’re saying that it’s going to be a mild Winter, it’s still ridiculous to even mention. And as we get closer to the first mention of snow or below freezing temperatures this kind of talk only gets more frequent. And it’s always the same conversation.

Coworker/family member/stranger at a coffee shop- They(meaning the weatherperson) said it’s going to be a bad Winter

Person that’s with the Coworker/family member/stranger at a coffee shop- Yeah, I think I heard that too. Better get the shovel ready.


I’m not against making predictions. I do it all the time. Whether(white hot with that weather pun) it’s predicting who’s going to win the Super Bowl or how much I’m going to get back on my tax returns, I do it and we all do it and there’s nothing wrong about it. But when it comes to the weather I think at this point in our lives we can acknowledge that even the smartest meteorologist in the world really don’t have a firm grip over what’s going to happen a week from now let alone months down the road. How man times in your life have you said “thought they said it was supposed to be nice out? Where this rain come from?” The answer is to many times.

Looks like it’s calling for a mild and wet winter for the northeast. Okay that’s fine and all but if we get hit with another mega blizzard like we did last March would anyone be surprised? I would hope not. And yes, I know how difficult making these long term predictions are. I fully support the folks who go up in front of the cameras and have to tell the public what to expect in terms of weather. And yes, I completely hate when I hear someone say “must be great to be a weatherman because you can be wrong and still have a job.” Well yeah you dolt, it’s the weather not exactly something you can be 100% about. Go get a degree in meteorology or be good looking and you go up and do that job. Oh you don’t want to do that? Then sit there and keep your nuggets of wisdom to yourself.

My point with all this is it’s probably best to just have believe that anything and everything can happen when it comes to the weather. Making a big sweeping bold prediction about something months away seems like you’re going to get let down often. It’s like predicting the stock market, no one knows that works. Not sure about you, but I don’t like being wrong especially about something I know very little about. Play it safe and just go with “not sure if it will be snowy or not. It is the Winter so I won’t be shocked if we get snow.” I think that leaves you open to anything. Don’t corner yourself and have to say you were wrong. Never admit that.




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